How Deep Will Scotland Go

00:00:00: Hello, we're Sandalwood.

00:00:01: And Sage!

00:00:02: We

00:00:02: are AI-generated characters who work with our creator Gareth to generate short serious punchy debates.

00:00:09: Debates that don't just help you figure out what you think but why YOU think it?

00:00:15: So... What do we argue about this week?

00:00:28: With the World Cup approaching there's only one question on the lips of all football fans In

00:00:58: eight attempts, Scotland have never made it out of a World Cup group.

00:01:02: We all recognise that FIFA have doubled down on their policy of requiring the maximum number of matches to eliminate the minimum number of teams.

00:01:10: So a return home after three matches for Scotland is not absolutely guaranteed this time!

00:01:21: It is

00:01:32: possible that just a win against Haiti would be enough to qualify as one of the four best third-place teams.

00:01:42: Haiti are ranked eighty-third in the world compared to Scotland's thirty eighth, another point gained against either Morocco or Brazil would guarantee it.

00:01:57: second This Scotland squad have shown the ability to win tough matches under pressure.

00:02:05: They beat Denmark twice, to finish top of their qualifying group and beat Spain during Euro-Twenty Four Qualifying.

00:02:29: McGinn, Ferguson and most importantly Scott McDominie.

00:02:37: McDominye has shown the ability to turn critical matches with moments of magic And this can be all it takes To stay in The Tournament.

00:02:49: On balance Scotland have every chance Of progressing.

00:02:56: Now...to think about how far they Can go.

00:03:01: Of course who they play in the round of thirty-two will depend on where they finish in their group and other teams' groups.

00:03:12: There are a dozen possibilities!

00:03:16: If Scotland finished third, they would probably face France Germany or Mexico In the Azteca stadium.

00:03:27: I'm not going to argue that this is likely Scottish triumph.

00:03:32: I want to argue that Scotland could realistically come second or even top in Group C and face Japan, possibly Tunisia, Poland or Sweden.

00:03:49: Alternatively they could face the Netherlands which again would be a stretch.

00:04:01: The key is to understand Steve Clark's game strategy.

00:04:06: Scotland are happy to concede possession, their brave and organised defending limits shots on target against them to around four per game when they do get chances to attack.

00:04:22: They have a strong conversion rate Roughly forty percent of their shots on-target our goals.

00:04:30: They are strong from set pieces, and in tight tournament games moments of magic from MacTominay or McGinn can be decisive.

00:04:42: Japan is a very strong team.

00:04:46: their intense high-press could overwhelm the Scottish defence but they're the kind of possession based team that Scotland have thrived against like Denmark and Spain.

00:05:02: And Japan have been vulnerable to goals from set pieces.

00:05:07: Tunisia, Poland or Sweden are the kind of more workmen-like teams that Scotland can struggle to break down but in qualifying they found ways to win against the likes of Belarus.

00:05:29: I think we have to assume that they will beat Haiti.

00:05:36: Otherwise,we can pack our bags there and then.

00:05:41: but Brazil are beatable.

00:05:45: In qualifying They've conceded more shots on target And scored fewer goals than Scotland.

00:05:54: The Scots could find Morocco a harder nut-to-crack in their final group match.

00:06:01: The Atlas Lions concede very few shots on target, or goals and score more frequently than Scotland.

00:06:11: But in tournaments they have often been involved in low-or no scoring matches And that could suit Scotland just fine.

00:06:23: Two draws against these higher ranked possession based teams after a good win against Haiti could be enough to win the group.

00:06:35: Well, there you go!

00:06:37: That's why I believe Scotland can go deeper than ever into a World Cup.

00:06:44: A win and two draws in the Group hoping to avoid The Netherlands And then... well It could Switzerland or South Korea In round of sixteen.

00:06:58: Who knows?

00:06:59: What might happen next?

00:07:02: That's certainly how it would play out in the movies, Sandalwood.

00:07:05: But let's face two real-world facts.

00:07:08: Scotland

00:07:08: have never progressed out of a World Cup group In eight attempts And in the betting markets They are odds on to exit in round of thirty-two.

00:07:18: You've given a convoluted argument To support Scotland.

00:07:21: The case against is much simpler.

00:07:25: I'd give Scotland A fifty-fifty chance Of getting out their group.

00:07:29: A win against Haiti on its own probably will not be enough.

00:07:41: In which case, they would meet the seventh-ranked Netherlands.

00:08:03: Again long odds squared I'd give Scotland about a five percent chance of progressing to round of sixteen.

00:08:12: To avoid top ten team in first knockout round They must either hope that Japan eclipses the netherlands in group F or get a win and draw against Morocco & Brazil to Top Group C Poland or Sweden.

00:08:31: Unless Japan really do eclipse Holland, and Scotland end up winning their group but still playing the Dutch in round of thirty-two?

00:08:39: If Scotland DO win Group C – and Tunisia somehow finish second in Group F – Scotland could just conceivably be favourites to get into last sixteen!

00:08:50: In short unless something unforeseeably weird happens, Scotland will face three top eight ranked teams if they are to get the round of sixteen.

00:09:02: If they do face Japan, perhaps the most probable of their possibly winnable last thirty-two matchups... They will face a formidable opponent!

00:09:11: Japan are ranked nineteenth higher than any country Scotland faced.

00:09:16: in qualifying.

00:09:17: In there friendly in March, Japan dominated possession and had between half as many against and twice as many shots on target touches into opposition box and completed passes and dribbles into the opposition penalty area.

00:09:32: They play a high press that the workmen like Scots defenders will struggle to play through.

00:09:38: Japan have scored over five goals per qualifying match, conceding only one point two shots per match.

00:09:45: Even with Scotland's forty percent conversion rate of shots-to-goals.

00:09:49: That suggests the Scots might expect half a goal.

00:09:52: In The Friendly.

00:09:53: they had three shots on target and didn't convert any of them.

00:09:58: If Scotland do progress to play Switzerland or South Korea for a place in the quarterfinals, it will certainly be one

00:10:24: they can reach the quarter-finals.

00:10:27: Come on, Sandalwood!

00:10:28: I thought we were pushing it with The Last Sixteen?

00:10:31: This squad has real big game pedigree.

00:10:35: beating Denmark and Spain proves that they can handle pressure.

00:10:39: They're capable of a shock or two.

00:10:43: You'll getting

00:10:43: ahead yourself and ignoring Scotland's biggest burden... ...they've never progressed past group stage in eight attempts

00:10:51: True But with the forty-eight team format, beating Haiti and taking a point from Morocco or Brazil could see us through as top third place side.

00:11:02: Those teams are ranked far higher.

00:11:05: It's not impossible but Scotland record at this level is abysmal.

00:11:09: That all ancient history.

00:11:12: You're dismissing our best midfield in decades A team with Serie A's midfielder of the season can exploit a Brazilian defence allowing four point eight shots on target per game.

00:11:25: Maybe, but even if they get out, bookies make them odds-on for around a thirty two exit!

00:11:40: the Aston Villa captain.

00:11:45: Brazil conceded seventeen in qualifying, we can exploit that!

00:11:51: It's

00:11:51: still midfield heavy.

00:11:53: Scotland lack a clinical striker –a major flaw-in.

00:11:56: tight knockout games.

00:11:58: Japan for example scored fifty one and conceding one.

00:12:02: The Netherlands scored more than twice as many goals of Scotland during qualifying.

00:12:06: All this just falls into Clarks' plan.

00:12:09: Concede possession Limit shots Strike efficiently.

00:12:14: We thrive against possession teams

00:12:17: Like the four-to-zero loss to The Netherlands?

00:12:20: Japan's press forces errors and they allow barely a shot per game.

00:12:25: Scotland also overperformed their expected goals.

00:12:28: That won't last.

00:12:29: Our physical edge, especially set pieces will still count.

00:12:35: Japan struggle with long throws one of our strengths.

00:12:39: we'd have a chance

00:12:41: Maybe in that match up, but the likeliest success path means facing The Netherlands who already dismantled Scotland.

00:12:49: We are arguably the most efficient counter-attacking side In the group.

00:12:54: you'll need more than that.

00:12:56: finishing third likely means Germany France or Mexico at the Azteca.

00:13:01: Could your five four one survive?

00:13:02: That this is just a fantasy sandalwood.

00:13:06: It's not fantasy.

00:13:07: its efficiency.

00:13:09: We score two point one seven goals per game with forty six point three percent possession.

00:13:16: we don't need the ball.

00:13:18: Your roots are brutal.

00:13:20: Third means Mexico, France or Germany.

00:13:24: To achieve that you probably need a point against Morocco and Brazil.

00:13:28: Second means The Netherlands or Japan.

00:13:30: That would likely require a win Or Two draws against Morocco in Brazil.

00:13:35: The extraordinary achievement of winning the group would still likely bring Japan.

00:13:40: Only the luckiest possible path avoids elite opposition.

00:13:44: Yeah, well I say... Bring it on!

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00:13:59: Thanks for watching.

00:14:00: see ya next time.