WILL ENGLAND WIN IT

00:00:00: Hello, we're Sandalwood.

00:00:01: And Sage!

00:00:02: We

00:00:02: are AI-generated characters who work with our creator Gareth to generate short serious punchy debates.

00:00:09: Debates that don't just help you figure out what you think but why YOU THINK IT?

00:00:15: So...what do we argue about this week?

00:00:28: Well Sandal Wood here we go again But as another World Cup approaches This time I find myself thinking England really have what it takes.

00:00:37: Who win world cups?

00:00:38: Teams that have won or got to the finals of recent major tournaments, who've locked tight defences and a core experience.

00:00:45: star players can make their magic happen at critical moments.

00:00:48: On balance I think there's every reason.

00:00:50: be confident about England's prospects.

00:00:53: They're as good or better chance than other favoured teams.

00:00:56: One will win.

00:00:57: Why not England?

00:00:59: Yes Sage!

00:01:00: I would agree.

00:01:01: those are key ingredients for a World Cup winner but my assessment of England is that they would fall into the second tier.

00:01:11: Why not, England?

00:01:12: My answer would be because there are at least three superior

00:01:17: teams.".

00:01:18: Okay Sandalwood!

00:01:19: We seem to agree as what wins World Cups – first and foremost having been their or their abouts in previous tournaments.

00:01:26: In their run-up to winning The Last World Cup in Qatar Argentina had been runner up third in twenty nineteen and winners.

00:01:37: In twenty twenty one, they beat Italy to win the finalisima in twenty twenty two.

00:01:42: as for France leading up to their winning Russia in twenty eighteen They had reached the quarterfinals in twenty fourteen And were runners-up in the twenty sixteen euros.

00:01:52: after having reach the quarter finals in two thousand twelve France and Argentina went on to win The Nations League and copper America immediately After Their World Cup triumphs.

00:02:02: Spain won there world cup in two hundred ten sandwiched between two successful Euro tournaments.

00:02:08: I would argue that no country has been as consistently in the running at recent major championships and was top scorer at the World Cup in Russia with six.

00:02:36: Kane & Killian Mbappe certainly have the potential to score plenty of goals, but major tournaments have been won on other end of their pitch – and there England have excelled!

00:02:46: Against admittedly moderate opposition, England've won eight qualifying matches without conceding a goal… as has Spain.

00:02:53: to be fair... In the last three major tournaments, England have conceded just nine goals.

00:03:00: Only once in those tournaments have England conceded more than one goal in a knockout match against France, in Russia.

00:03:07: England will be very tough to score against and very difficult to beat

00:03:12: But they have been beaten by Croatia Italy France And Spain.

00:03:18: There's a pattern there

00:03:20: but In addition to those assets I've already covered.

00:03:23: England go into this World Cup with the squad that perfectly blends youth athleticism elite talent and tournament experience.

00:03:31: Any list of the world's top players would include Cain, Bellingham, Foden, Rice, Sacker and Alexander Arnold.

00:03:38: but even these talents are by no means guaranteed a starting place except perhaps for Cain & Pickford.

00:03:44: there is intense competition at every position.

00:03:47: England are likely to go into the World Cup with a squad averaging between twenty six and twenty seven years old.

00:03:52: entering its peak period.

00:03:54: it will likely combine veterans like Cain Pickford, Henderson and Stones with young talents who already have substantial tournament experience like Bellingham, Sacker, Rice & Palmer.

00:04:06: In summary while there are no guarantees I believe England has the momentum defensive quality elite talent And Young Legs to go all-the way to Rutherford New Jersey and win.

00:04:18: Perhaps Sage but While England Have a strong squad an every chance of going deep into The Tournament There's no reason to think that they will be any more successful than there have been for the past sixty years.

00:04:34: What wins world cups?

00:04:37: It is very unusual for a team, other then Italy ,to win out of the blue.

00:04:43: Most winners have won other recent major tournaments and are often in middle of triumphal runs.

00:04:52: Argentina Spain and France fit that profile much better than England.

00:04:59: Argentina returned to North America, where they won the twenty-twenty four Copa América.

00:05:06: They won The Last World Cup And The Previous Copa America.

00:05:11: Spain are the reigning Euro champions winning every match sandwiched between two Nations League Finals Germany, England Italy and the Netherlands along the way.

00:05:30: In recent decades France have been the most consistent big tournament performers winning a World Cup and a Nations League and regularly reaching finals and semi-finals.

00:05:43: Compared to those three I would say that England's recent Tournament record is on par with The Netherlands & Portugal.

00:05:52: Surely not England have been better than that.

00:05:55: Ha!

00:05:56: Unlike England, Portugal actually won something – twice the Nations League in twenty nineteen and twenty-twenty five….

00:06:06: …and have been to the quarterfinals in The Last World Cup and Euros.

00:06:12: Like England, the Netherlands are nearly men Quarter finalists semi-finalists and beaten finalists Pretty comparable to England, I'd say.

00:06:25: A second big factor is having a core of super elite tournament-hardened players.

00:06:32: England certainly do have a strong squad but i'm not convinced that on balance it's at the level of Argentina France or Spain.

00:06:43: The French Squad probably has the largest number with any amount of international tournament and Champions League experience.

00:06:56: Spain are packed with exhilarating young talent, in addition to established stars And Argentina, of course... ...are packed with World Cup and Copa winners.

00:07:09: Even putting Messi on one side they boast a core of the world's elite players.

00:07:16: It may be that the England players step up a level in twenty-twenty six and show they have grown into the best squad in the world.

00:07:26: But going into tournament, They look more like Portugal or Brazil In word – second tier.

00:07:36: In summary If this World Cup were played ten times I would expect one of Argentina, France or Spain to win on eight occasions.

00:07:48: With the other two being shared amongst England Portugal The Netherlands and maybe Germany or Brazil.

00:07:57: in other words all the usual suspects.

00:08:01: under Gareth Southgate England became a quarterfinal and semi-final team with occasional trips to a final.

00:08:09: I expect they'll be in the same elevated territory under Thomas Tucho, but ultimately will face one or more of three distinctly superior teams.

00:08:25: Sandalwood can we agree that England have been in elevated territory consistently?

00:08:30: Reaching the World Cup semi-final This consistency suggests we possess the essential characteristics of a World Cup winner, strong defensive organisation world-class talent and deep tournament experience.

00:08:48: I acknowledge the depth of England's recent run sage.

00:08:52: it shows growing big match experience and sustained momentum.

00:08:58: however The data emphatically confirms that England remains behind the three genuinely superior teams.

00:09:08: The momentum is overwhelmingly with Argentina, Spain and France.

00:09:15: But isn't the composition of our current squad the decisive factor?

00:09:18: We agree that the core players need to be world-class and tournament hardened.

00:09:22: Our Squad averaging between twenty six and twenty seven years old Is entering its peak period combining veterans like Cain with young talents who already have substantial tournament experience, Like Bellingham, Sacca, Rice and Palmer.

00:09:37: England has their strongest generation since nineteen sixty six surely comparable to Spain's

00:09:43: Up to a point.

00:09:45: I will grant you that sage.

00:09:47: however A big difference between England and the probable winners lies in competitive head-to-head performance against the best teams.

00:09:59: Spain, in particular has an outstanding record against elite opposition.

00:10:05: since The Last World Cup They have defeated England France And Germany In major competitive fixtures contributing to their national record of a thirty-match competitive unbeaten streak.

00:10:22: When England have met one of those nations in the knockout stages, that historical dominance and trophy winning mentality of their rivals has tended to

00:10:33: prevail.".

00:10:35: That is The Crux Of The Issue – THE MISSING TROPHY We are consistently reaching.

00:10:44: We are one shot or save away from the big prize.

00:11:04: an excellent defensive record and powerful momentum.

00:11:42: Precisely!

00:11:44: Our common belief is this England will certainly be in quarterfinal or semi-final territory, maybe even the final.

00:11:55: Whether they win depends entirely on whether this golden generation can translate their elite characteristics and defensive strength into definitive trophy winning performances against one of more demonstrably superior

00:12:29: nations.