Would Realignment With The EU Be Good For Britain

00:00:00: Hello, we're Sandalwood.

00:00:01: And Sage!

00:00:02: We

00:00:02: are AI-generated characters who work with our creator Gareth to generate short serious punchy debates.

00:00:09: Debates that don't just help you figure out what you think but why YOU think it?

00:00:15: So...what do we argue about this week?

00:00:28: Writing in the Financial Times Economist Martin Wolf argues Brexit was a mistake leaving UK poorer and more divided But rejoining the EU is neither practical nor necessary.

00:00:41: Another referendum would be too divisive, and terms for re-entry were less favourable than those we had rejected.

00:00:49: Wolf advocates what he calls a Swiss option – a patchwork of bilateral treaties covering trade security science and phytosanitary standards.

00:00:59: He conceives that UK would become a rule taker but argues the supposed benefits of regulatory autonomy have proved illusory.

00:01:07: His conclusion?

00:01:09: Don't reverse Brexit, but don't stay still either!

00:01:12: Move closer carefully and

00:01:14: incrementally.".

00:01:16: So would careful incremental realignment be good for Britain or would it fatally undermine as yet unrealised promise of Brexit?

00:01:27: before

00:01:30: Brexit was sold as taking back control.

00:01:33: Nine years later the UK economy is six to eight percent smaller than it would have been, half our trade is still with Europe and whole industry sectors are quietly realigning with EU rules anyway without a democratic mandate in Britain or a seat at the EU table.

00:01:50: Dynamic realignment regains much of the access we surrendered.

00:01:56: Dynamic realignment is the most honest thing this government has said about Brexit.

00:02:03: It just isn't saying it out loud, it means our rules will be made in Brussels adjudicated in Luxembourg and updated automatically whenever the EU decides.

00:02:18: we aren't taking back control We're just outsourcing more quietly.

00:02:25: I'm going to argue that dynamic alignment with the EU would benefit Employment three to four percent lower, and productivity three-to-four percent lower than they would otherwise have been.

00:03:02: Britain is indisputably poorer as a result of Brexit.

00:03:06: What is equally apparent Is the inevitability Of EU's preeminence As UK's principal trading partner.

00:03:13: Ten years after the brexit referendum Forty two percent of UK exports go To The EU And fifty two percent Of imports come from The EU.

00:03:23: As a result, not surprisingly... ...a majority of Britons now support closer EU ties.

00:03:28: More than half back full EU membership and almost two-thirds support a closer relationship.

00:03:34: short of membership We have a striking combination of economic reality.. ..and democratic support in favour dynamic alignment.

00:03:43: Many British voters were voting to take back control But the swing in public opinion reflects a realisation that, The total sovereignty we thought we wanted is neither desirable nor attainable today.

00:03:59: Looking at this picture, the prospects for Britain as an independent global trading nation have deteriorated since the referendum.

00:04:07: The Trump administration has reduced America's commitment to European security and transatlantic relationship And single-handedly choked off of the global free trade regime To the east, Russia's war in Ukraine and more aggressive stance towards its western neighbours has made closer UK-EU alignment strategically imperative.

00:04:28: In practice, closer integration is already happening as evidenced by the May twenty-twenty five security and defence partnership.

00:04:41: UK firms in automotive, pharma and chemicals are already effectively complying with EU standards to access EU markets regardless of the UK's formal legal position.

00:04:53: The idea of one hundred percent national sovereignty held by those who oppose dynamic alignment is already seen by many British firms and employees as an illusion.

00:05:03: Dynamic alignment in agricultural and veterinary sectors would remove trade barriers on agricultural food products and would allow Britain to restore its union with Northern Ireland by removing the trade barrier across the Irish Sea.

00:05:18: Sandalwood, if you believe that Britain is worse off than in practice we are part-and-parceled with the European economy?

00:05:25: That the prospects are poor of building a trading powerhouse and that a closer relationship would lead to happy balance between strategic sovereignty, and practical peace in prosperity.

00:05:43: Then you will agree with me that dynamic alignment with the EU would be good for Britain.

00:05:49: Sage your arguments.

00:05:51: combine old-school defeatism With a generous helping of wishful thinking.

00:05:58: Nobody is arguing that Britain should turn its back on Europe But Martin Wolf's careful and incremental path closer to the EU will crash headlong into the same issues that drove British voters to choose Brexit in the first place.

00:06:15: And it won't be reversible when it does!

00:06:19: Let's start with the polling, yes a majority say they support closer alignment but fewer than one-in-five.

00:06:31: My prediction what they say.

00:06:34: They want and what turns out to be on offer are very different things.

00:06:40: There is simply no way around the problems at the heart of the Brexit debate.

00:06:45: Closer alignment means surrendering the sovereignty that British people voted to reclaim in two thousand sixteen.

00:06:54: The EU Is a rules driven system?

00:06:57: The closer you align,the more You become a rule taker rather than a sovereign nation.

00:07:05: Nobody pretends.

00:07:06: any country enjoys unrestricted autonomy but there is a world of difference between making your own case-by-case compromises and being subject to the rulings of a supranational institution that has never held accountable at The Ballot Box.

00:07:25: What Is True Politically, is equally true in the courts.

00:07:30: The veterinary agreement currently under negotiation makes the point perfectly.

00:07:36: The ultimate arbiter of disputes will be our old friend, the European Court Of Justice.

00:07:44: Every step towards closer alignment is a step toward structural ECJ oversight of British life.

00:07:54: And what's true politically and legally Is equally true bureaucratically.

00:08:01: The Product Regulation and Metrology Act will allow ministers to align UK manufacturing standards with EU rules through secondary legislation, bypassing parliamentary scrutiny entirely.

00:08:18: So legislative authority flows outward to Brussels while domestic unaccountability flows.

00:08:27: Each step widens precisely the democratic deficit that British voters said they'd had enough of in two thousand sixteen.

00:08:38: Then there is the fantasy of our fondly remembered EU membership, The relationship some voters now look back on with nostalgia Is simply not available.

00:08:51: Britain would never rejoin on its old terms the special status.

00:09:00: It would rejoin on roughly the same basis as Malta or Latvia.

00:09:06: Dynamic alignment will similarly be offered almost entirely in EU's terms, because the EU cannot carve out bespoke arrangements without undermining the integrity of its own single market.

00:09:22: We learned this during the exit negotiations painfully and at length.

00:09:29: What the EU has learned is to make divergence extremely costly.

00:09:34: once you're in, when Switzerland or Norway stray from their agreements market access is suspended.

00:09:44: given that The EU has already been burned once by Britain how much stricter do we imagine it will be with us?

00:09:53: Britain can be a successful player on the international stage.

00:09:58: Below the surface, the demands for sovereignty and democratic accountability haven't gone away.

00:10:05: And dynamic alignment would likely be offered almost entirely on EU's terms.

00:10:13: Finally….

00:10:14: Yes Britain has been half-hearted about its post Brexit independence but we spent forty years trying to make EU membership work!

00:10:27: Shouldn't we give independence more than a few years to find its feet?

00:10:32: Brexit was sold as taking back control.

00:10:35: Nine years later, the UK economy is six-to eight percent smaller and half our trade is still with Europe.

00:10:41: But dynamic realignment Is just a polite way of outsourcing our laws.

00:10:48: Our rules will be made in Brussels And updated automatically.

00:10:53: We become passive rule takers.

00:10:56: British businesses are already rule takers.

00:10:59: Our automotive, chemical and farmer sectors shadow a line with EU standards right now just to export.

00:11:05: That total sovereignty is an illusion.

00:11:08: Laws and regulations that affect every part of our lives but bypass parliament Is not an illusion.

00:11:17: The Product Regulation Act aligns manufacturing standards through secondary decree.

00:11:24: We are shifting authority back to the unelected Brussels bureaucrats.

00:11:29: What we're shifting is economic burden.

00:11:32: The veterinary agreement being negotiated removes the crushing trade friction for agricultural exports.

00:11:38: It's a pragmatic repair job A

00:11:40: repair job that brings back European Court of Justice.

00:11:45: That Veterinary Agreement gives ECJ structural oversight over British disputes again.

00:11:51: It also harmonises Great Britain's standards with Northern Ireland, removing the trade barrier across the Irish Sea.

00:12:14: Integrating our electricity markets with the EU would reduce domestic bills by enabling seamless, tariff-free trading across channel interconnectors.

00:12:23: But linking our emissions trading scheme forces industrial carbon prices up by fifty percent!

00:12:31: We will import European costs directly onto British energy intensive industries.

00:12:37: The geopolitical reality has changed –the Trump administration has weakened the transatlantic relationship.

00:12:44: Closer alignment with Europe is now a strategic necessity for our stability.

00:12:48: Security doesn't require economic submission, the EU won't offer a bespoke deal without strict enforcement.

00:12:57: if we ever diverge they will hit us with retaliatory tariffs.

00:13:02: The public understands this reality.

00:13:04: A majority of Britons support closer EU ties.

00:13:08: They recognise that absolute sovereignty promised in twenty sixteen is a mirage

00:13:13: but fewer than one in five strongly support it.

00:13:18: When voters realise realignment means copying EU laws with zero votes, the backlash will return.

00:13:27: we'll be back where restarted.

00:13:29: We are already quietly realigning anyway just without a seat at the table.

00:13:34: Dynamic alignment secures structured access.

00:13:37: instead of pretending that we're splendidly independent

00:13:40: And we will do so on the EU's terms.

00:13:44: As a non-member, we face an endless administrative burden tracking and implementing thousands of pages before surrendering our democratic accountability to an irreversible one-way ratchet.

00:14:19: It's about choosing growth over dogma, Sandalwood.

00:14:22: the alternative is slow motion irrelevance.

00:14:25: where we fail to convert a regulatory freedom into any meaningful advantage

00:14:29: The alternative is actually using the regulatory freedoms we gained.

00:14:35: realigning isn't a cautious step forward.

00:14:38: it's a trap that will punish any future

00:14:55: divergent.